SinceInternational crude oil price trends there has been a shortage of truck drivers nationwide, the shale oil industry does not believe that trucking will be an effective solution to the lack of transportation capacity, especially because the demand for trucks will be temporary.
The price fell all the way from the intraday point of 67, falling below the three major barriers of 600, 600 and 600, and finally fell to the 62 level. This plunge also brought crude oil prices back to the low region of July 8.
From the perspective of China National Petroleum Corporation, Saudi Arabia’s idea is obviously a bit too optimistic. On the one hand, although the recent crude oil market has exploded strongly and once approached 70 US dollars, from the perspective of the factors that triggered the crude oil surge, it is largely based on changes in market risk sentiment. It is the Sino-US trade conflict, the fermentation of the situation in the Middle East, the burning of the Syrian war, and the future economic crisis in Venezuela. It is true that once these events erupt, they will trigger a surge in crude oil prices, but the disadvantage is that they can only bring about Come a short burst of market. The reason why the current crude oil price is a bit false and unreal is because there is a lack of sustained and stable long-term momentum, because on the fundamentals, OPEC's production cut and the US crude oil production increase have been in a tit-for-tat state. Therefore, in the long run, it is short-term. In fact, the outbreak of the market cannot fully bring a sustained positive to the crude oil market.
At present, the turmoil of the United States' withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement has not yet subsided, but the situation in the Middle East has become increasingly tense. According to reports, the Israeli army carried out bombings in Syria for about 2 hours from midnight to midnight on the 0th local time.
At present, the market focus is still on the Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom this week. The latest polls show that the staying camp is slightly better, the market’s risk aversion has eased, global stock markets have risen sharply, and investors have covered the previous short pound and US dollar positions. The dollar is therefore under pressure.
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil output in May hit the highest level since October of 207. At the same time, next week, Russia and Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries will discuss the advancement of production increase and the gradual withdInternational crude oil price trendsrawal of production reduction agreements.
The proposal will further restrict countries that have more capacity to extract more crude oil from continuing to reduce production. However, Iran, Venezuela and other countries have publicly expressed their opposition to measures to reduce the scale of production. Forexlive website commented that no matter how the final increase in production scale, the market will expect OPEC production to increase, but the subsequent response will depend on the scale of production increase and specific conditions.
Due to the production reduction agreement and Venezuela's continued decline in production, this makes OPEC approach the five-year average faster than expected. The OPEC Joint Ministerial Supervisory Committee stated that the compliance level in April was 52%. The committee also estimated that for the first time since production cuts, OECD crude oil inventories were below the 5-year average of 20 million barrels.
JPMorgan Chase also predicts that Saudi oil production can increase to 0 million barrels per day in the short term, but further increases may require nearly nine months of preparation time. This also means that if Saudi Arabia is to completely replace Iran’s oil exports, even if the United States announced sanctions starting in June this year, it will not be able to complete its goal until March next year. Therefore, JPMorgan Chase expects that Saudi Arabia may use inventory to balance market prices, but this is not a long-term solution.