MarkU.S. crude oil production surpasses Saudi Arabia-global leader in 2019et participants said that whether OPEC will increase production is still the focus of market discussions, and the views on this issue have caused continuous changes in market trends. In fact, OPEC has been under public or hidden pressure from the United States. The United States hopes that OPEC can cool down the overheated oil market.
Lynch's forecast report in May stated that under the premise of a rebound in OPEC countries' crude oil exports and the limited impact of US sanctions on Iran, the price of Brent crude oil futures in the second quarter of next year will rise to US$90/barrel or even higher.
Analysis shows that international disputes, elections and other political changes have replaced crude oil, and the relationship between Canada and Russia and the United States has become a key factor in the promotion of these currencies is one of the biggest factors driving the devaluation of the domestic currency. At the same time, oil is increasingly being driven by supply-side factors, and OPEC has re-established its influence on the market. Brazil will hold general elections in October.
Therefore, there are several possibilities in the upcoming OPEC meeting. First, Saudi Arabia and Russia persuaded OPEC to agree to increase production. Although nominally each country can increase production a bit, the two largest oil-producing countries account for a large percentage of the increase. This will require sacrifices by many countries in OPEC. These countries cannot increase oil production and have to bear lower oil prices.
On the other hand, the risks of trade wars are also affecting oil prices, because crude oil is a risky asset, so if risk aversion increases, it will drag oil prices. It is unlikely that the market will suddenly turn to the downside from the upward trend of several years and months. Therefore, maintaining a bullish outlook is still the best option, but we should not be too confident about continuing the upward trend.
The most likely scenario: OPEC’s daily output increased by 500,000 barrels, Russia’s daily output increased by 0 million barrels, and the total daily output increased by 600,000 barrels; the British "FinanU.S. crude oil production surpasses Saudi Arabia-global leader in 2019cial Times" also stated that an increase of 600,000 barrels is the most likely option.
Last week, US crude oil imports decreased by 10,000 barrels/day to 7.45 million barrels/day; last week, US crude oil exports increased by 640,000 barrels/day to 790,000 barrels/day. EIA data show that the utilization rate of refinery capacity has decreased by 8% to 9%. In addition, US domestic crude oil production was flat at 0 million barrels per day last week.