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In addition to analyzing the fundamentals, Goldman Sachs also cited historical experience as supporting evidence, stating that in the past, after OPEC raised production quotas in an environment of strong demand like today, oil prices would rise in the following months.
Venezuela’s oil production has fallen sharply, and the United States’ sanctions on Iran are imminent. In the context of the global economic recovery, market indicators point to tight supply, especially in Asia, the world’s largest crude oil consumer.
According to data from the Intercontinental Exchange, ICE, the Brent crude oil call open positions that expire on September 25 and have an exercise price of US$80 and US$85 per barrel jumped nearly 45% in two days. The open positions of these two call rights total 40,000 lots, which is equivalent to about 54 million barrels of crude oil, which is nearly half of the monthly call and put contracts with an exercise price of US$60-00 per barrel.
These resistances are the 50% and 2% retracement forecast levels of a downward wave C starting at $775/barrel. This wave may have completely ended or partially ended at the support range of around US$757/barrel to US$77/barrel, because the price rebounded rapidly from Tuesday’s low of US$78/barrel.
OPEC and many people familiar with the oil industry said that due to concerns about the economic crisis leading to further reductions in Venezuelan oil production and the potential impact on IraBakken Crude Oil Pricenian oil supply, OPEC may decide to increase oil output as early as June. The source said that after the oil price rose above US$80/barrel last week, OPEC member countries are taking the lead in conducting preliminary negotiations on how to increase crude oil production.
Barclays Energy Commodities Research Director Michael Cohen said that the escalation of the situation in Syria will lead to increased risks in other regions, whether it is Yemen, or Arab, Iran, and Iraq, it may cause tensions throughout the Middle East.